How to choose the most beneficial gas contracts within a portfolio of offers

The support of the main areas of the business in technological tools is essential to improve the profitability of Natural Gas Distributors.

With this objective, we developed in Novix a suite of solutions aimed at different areas of companies.

Each module of the suite can be implemented in isolation, in order to accelerate production times and the generation of benefits.

In this article, I detail the main features of two modules designed to solve problems in the area of supply and contract management.

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Optimization in the purchase of gas

The New Gas Market Act establishes a new framework for the producing sector in Brazil, creating incentives for more suppliers to offer gas and transportation, thus expanding purchasing options.

Supply managers now face a new challenge: choosing, among the different suppliers, the most suitable option for the company.

The implementation of this module becomes key to quickly and efficiently processing all the information associated with the variety of contracts and conditions offered, and to define the most suitable portfolio for the distributor.

The data for all possible contracts is easily loaded into the tool.

Based on this information, the system executes an optimization routine that allows combining all the offers, evaluating the impact on costs with respect to an estimated future daily demand and finally defining the combination that minimizes the total cost of buying gas, including the associated penalties.

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In short, this module allows you to:

• Reduce scenario generation time by up to 40 times
• Evaluate portfolio options in the face of changes in demand.
• Plan gas contracts for the coming years, on a daily basis.
• Sign the most favorable supply agreements.
• Minimize costs due to penalties associated with the purchase of gas.
• Nominate the current contract portfolio, minimizing the purchase cost.
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Forecasting daily demand

The daily nomination of gas contracts requires accurate demand projections to reduce errors and avoid cost overruns.

The daily demand forecasting module uses econometric models and algorithms of Machine Learning to analyze historical data with different levels of disaggregation (including customer by customer in the case of large consumers), and estimate demand for the coming days.

The improvement in the estimate directly translates into a reduction in penalties linked to errors in the nomination of gas injection contracts for the following days.

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In short, this module allows you to:

• Forecast short-term daily demand with greater accuracy.
• Test more than 30 predictive models to identify the one that best fits the company's demand behavior.
• Reduce costs derived from errors in the nomination due to low accuracy.
• Helping clients with greater accuracy in nominating each one individually

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👉 Do you want to know how these solutions can optimize the profitability and efficiency of your distributor?

Let's talk: https://pyplan.com/es/entre-en-contacto/

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